How much (good) goaltending is available this Wednesday?

Goaltending is a pretty interesting thing. It's highly randomized by luck, its notoriously inconsistent, and there are only 30 starting jobs to go around the league. And yet its the most important position in a game that relies so much on teams as opposed to individuals. A bad goalie is the biggest goat in sports, but a good goalie is the most prized possession, for which another GM would trade his first born child and then some. That dichotomy is intensely interesting to me, especially when you consider that more and more research by bloggers like Tyler Dellow and the Contrarian Goaltender shows that the difference between the best and worst goalies in the NHL is very small.

This year's goaltender UFA class looks to be a pretty interesting one. Per Tyler Dellow, a replacement level goaltender for the 2008-09 season should post a .902 SV%. When you look at the stats of several goaltenders who were in the league last year, it quickly becomes obvious that several of these guys are below replacement level, and therefore ought to be replaced. Here's the list of available goaltenders starting July 1, per James Mirtle.

				2008-09
	PLAYER	TM	Age	Cap hit	GP	W	Spct
1	BIRON, MARTIN	PHI	31.9	3.500	55	29	0.915
2	ROLOSON, DWAYNE	EDM	39.7	3.667	63	28	0.915
3	KHABIBULIN, NIKOLAI	CHI	36.5	6.750	42	25	0.919
4	CLEMMENSEN, SCOTT	N.J	31.9	0.500	40	25	0.917
5	CONKLIN, TY	DET	33.2	0.750	40	25	0.909
6	FERNANDEZ, MANNY	BOS	34.8	4.333	28	16	0.910
7	ANDERSON, CRAIG	FLA	28.1	0.550	31	15	0.924
8	NIITTYMAKI, ANTERO	PHI	29.0	1.225	32	15	0.912
9	MACDONALD, JOEY	NYI	29.4	0.488	49	14	0.901
10	LEGACE, MANNY	STL	36.4	2.150	29	13	0.885
11	BOUCHER, BRIAN	S.J	32.5	0.650	22	12	0.917
12	JOHNSON, BRENT	WSH	32.3	0.813	21	12	0.908
13	RAYCROFT, ANDREW	COL	29.2	0.800	31	12	0.892
14	DANIS, YANN	NYI	28.0	0.550	31	10	0.910
15	GERBER, MARTIN	TOR	34.8	3.700	26	10	0.902
16	LABARBERA, JASON	VAN	29.4	0.825	28	8	0.901
17	GARON, MATHIEU	PIT	31.5	1.100	19	8	0.894
18	WEEKES, KEVIN	N.J	34.2	0.688	16	7	0.920
19	SANFORD, CURTIS	VAN	29.7	0.650	19	7	0.906
20	SABOURIN, DANY	EDM	28.8	0.513	19	6	0.898
21	JOSEPH, CURTIS	TOR	42.2	0.700	21	5	0.869
22	KOLZIG, OLAF	TOR	39.2	2.500	8	2	0.898
23	DUBIELEWICZ, WADE	CBJ	30.4	0.500	3	1	0.870

I've highlighted in red those goalies who played below a replacement level last season. Olaf Kolzig is clearly on the way out, but Wade Dubielewicz certainly falls prey to a small sample size here. For a career average (which is again a small sample size) in the regular season Dubie has a SV% of 0.916, and he's had some better numbers and some worse ones. As a guess, I would think Dubie is probably pretty close to a replacement level goalie, and in fact, could probably be that replacement level goalie for some teams who had subpar goaltending last year.

So out of a list of 23 available players, 8 (not counting Dubie) are below replacement level goaltenders. This leaves 15 goalies who should have jobs in the NHL, judging by last season's performances. That would make up 25% of available goaltending positions (starting and backup) within the NHL. Tough room, huh?