24 May 2009

What Constitutes an Elite Playoff Performance?

When I did the Wings/Ducks series over at Cycle Like Sedins, I did a post examining Chris Pronger's reputation as a Wing-killer.  This post was missing a couple of things, in retrospect.  It lacked a comparison of Pronger's stats during his time as a Wing-killer versus his career playoff averages, and more important, it lacked context in terms of what constituted a good playoff performance.  So I'm going to attempt to gather some information here to use as a sort of gauge for a future series of posts on other well known Wing-killers, to see if there was any sort of improved performance against the Red Wings, or if the reputation that some players have is more myth than reality.  As these posts will involve looking at some older box scores, where a lot of rate information is not available, I'm going to keep it pretty basic on what constitutes success, at least for now.  Points per game (PPG) and +/- will be the primary metrics here.  Obviously, neither of these stats is perfect, but hopefully, they'll give us some sort of context for looking at other player's performance.  

As most of the players, teams, and situations I am interested in have been in the Dead Puck Era, which also coincides with my becoming a hockey fan, I'm primarily interested in what the numbers are for this period of time.  I'm setting the Dead Puck Era as having started with the 1994 playoffs, where the Devils were a serious contender for the Cup (and won the next year).  Getting the extra year in there should also hopefully widen sample sizes, allowing me to come up with more accurate numbers for what constitutes a good playoff.  If I want to look at things further back, I might have to update this, but for now, I think it works.   

(Includes Forwards, Defense, and Goalies)
All data as of May 25, 2009 14:00 MST

≥1.35 PPG = 2 players in this range (2 players at this range or better)
1.34 - 1.15 PPG = 6 (8)
1.14 - 0.95 PPG = 17 (25)
0.94 - 0.75 PPG = 40 (57)
0.74 - 0.60 PPG = 95 (152)
0.59 - 0.50 PPG = 76 (228)
0.49 - 0.40 PPG = 87 (315)
0.39 - 0.30 PPG = 149 (464)
0.29 - 0.20 PPG = 159 (623)
0.19 - 0.10 PPG = 183 (806)

Now, for a bit of a picture for defensemen specifically, let's exclude the forwards (and the goalies too, I guess).   

All data as of 25 May 2009 14:00

≥1.0 PPG = 1 player in this range (1 player at this range or better)
0.99 - 0.80 PPG = 0 (1)
0.79 - 0.70 PPG = 6 (7)
0.69 - 0.60 PPG = 10 (17)
0.59 - 0.50 PPG = 15 (32)
0.49 - 0.40 PPG = 24 (56)
0.39 - 0.30 PPG = 59 (115)
0.29 - 0.20 PPG = 52 (167)
0.19 - 0.10 PPG = 92 (259)

For the curious, the one huge outlier here is Brian Leetch, apparently, whose PPG average is actually right in line with his career average.  Should be interesting to compare specific performances against these numbers.  I haven't updated Pronger's numbers as a Wing-killer, but I do remember that prior to 2009, in his time as an elite defenseman in the NHL, Pronger was averaging 1.0 PPG against the Wings in the playoffs.  That's pretty impressive for a forward, much less a defenseman.  

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