How much (good) goaltending is available this Wednesday?

Goaltending is a pretty interesting thing. It's highly randomized by luck, its notoriously inconsistent, and there are only 30 starting jobs to go around the league. And yet its the most important position in a game that relies so much on teams as opposed to individuals. A bad goalie is the biggest goat in sports, but a good goalie is the most prized possession, for which another GM would trade his first born child and then some. That dichotomy is intensely interesting to me, especially when you consider that more and more research by bloggers like Tyler Dellow and the Contrarian Goaltender shows that the difference between the best and worst goalies in the NHL is very small.

This year's goaltender UFA class looks to be a pretty interesting one. Per Tyler Dellow, a replacement level goaltender for the 2008-09 season should post a .902 SV%. When you look at the stats of several goaltenders who were in the league last year, it quickly becomes obvious that several of these guys are below replacement level, and therefore ought to be replaced. Here's the list of available goaltenders starting July 1, per James Mirtle.

				2008-09
	PLAYER	TM	Age	Cap hit	GP	W	Spct
1	BIRON, MARTIN	PHI	31.9	3.500	55	29	0.915
2	ROLOSON, DWAYNE	EDM	39.7	3.667	63	28	0.915
3	KHABIBULIN, NIKOLAI	CHI	36.5	6.750	42	25	0.919
4	CLEMMENSEN, SCOTT	N.J	31.9	0.500	40	25	0.917
5	CONKLIN, TY	DET	33.2	0.750	40	25	0.909
6	FERNANDEZ, MANNY	BOS	34.8	4.333	28	16	0.910
7	ANDERSON, CRAIG	FLA	28.1	0.550	31	15	0.924
8	NIITTYMAKI, ANTERO	PHI	29.0	1.225	32	15	0.912
9	MACDONALD, JOEY	NYI	29.4	0.488	49	14	0.901
10	LEGACE, MANNY	STL	36.4	2.150	29	13	0.885
11	BOUCHER, BRIAN	S.J	32.5	0.650	22	12	0.917
12	JOHNSON, BRENT	WSH	32.3	0.813	21	12	0.908
13	RAYCROFT, ANDREW	COL	29.2	0.800	31	12	0.892
14	DANIS, YANN	NYI	28.0	0.550	31	10	0.910
15	GERBER, MARTIN	TOR	34.8	3.700	26	10	0.902
16	LABARBERA, JASON	VAN	29.4	0.825	28	8	0.901
17	GARON, MATHIEU	PIT	31.5	1.100	19	8	0.894
18	WEEKES, KEVIN	N.J	34.2	0.688	16	7	0.920
19	SANFORD, CURTIS	VAN	29.7	0.650	19	7	0.906
20	SABOURIN, DANY	EDM	28.8	0.513	19	6	0.898
21	JOSEPH, CURTIS	TOR	42.2	0.700	21	5	0.869
22	KOLZIG, OLAF	TOR	39.2	2.500	8	2	0.898
23	DUBIELEWICZ, WADE	CBJ	30.4	0.500	3	1	0.870

I've highlighted in red those goalies who played below a replacement level last season. Olaf Kolzig is clearly on the way out, but Wade Dubielewicz certainly falls prey to a small sample size here. For a career average (which is again a small sample size) in the regular season Dubie has a SV% of 0.916, and he's had some better numbers and some worse ones. As a guess, I would think Dubie is probably pretty close to a replacement level goalie, and in fact, could probably be that replacement level goalie for some teams who had subpar goaltending last year.

So out of a list of 23 available players, 8 (not counting Dubie) are below replacement level goaltenders. This leaves 15 goalies who should have jobs in the NHL, judging by last season's performances. That would make up 25% of available goaltending positions (starting and backup) within the NHL. Tough room, huh?

Chris Pronger is a Flyer, but didn't need to be

The big news lately around the NHL (aside from the buildup for July 1) is the Chris Pronger trade from Anaheim to Philadelphia. The deal was Chris Pronger & Ryan Dingle from Anaheim to Philadelphia for Joffrey Lupul, Luca Sbisa, 2 first round draft picks, and a conditional 3rd round pick in 2010 or 2011. Its a pretty hefty price for Pronger, and I don't think anyone can say that the Ducks didn't get enough in exchange. It was a good return for the trade. On the Flyers end of it, if Pronger walks at the end of this season, then I would say they overpaid, but not terribly. If Pronger resigns with the team, then it was a good deal.

Despite the big price tag, Chris Pronger is undoubtedly one of the top defensemen in the league. I can't think of anyone I would hate to see on an opposing blueline more than Pronger, especially come playoff time. In the Eastern Conference, where defense is secondary to offense, and superstars like Crosby, Malkin, and Ovechkin are allowed to drive to the net relentlessly, Pronger will be even more valuable. He makes sure that getting to his net isn't easy, that you have to pay the toll in sweat (and maybe some blood) to get there. I can think of a couple stars who could be in for a rude awakening when they play the Flyers next.

However, all that said, if Pronger was willing to resign with the Ducks and work out an extension before next summer, then I don't like this deal so much from the Ducks' perspective. Chris Pronger will be 35 this fall, meaning (as I understand it at least) that any new contract he signs will be subject to the guarantees that come with signing a player over 35. This would help keep his price down a little, as no one wants to be stuck with an immovable contract for an injured defenseman (hey, the Flyers would know about that!). Also, given that he would enter free agency in either the second year of an unmoving salary cap, or even a decreasing one, there would be less available money to be offered to him, and bidding wars would be somewhat tempered.

Chris Pronger's current deal has him counting for 6.250M/yr cap hits. He peaked with some absolutely stellar playoff runs in 2006 (Oilers) and 2007 (Ducks). That already gives him the 9th highest 09/10 cap hit amongst defensemen (obviously pending the events of this year's free agent period). Combined with the above issues (less to spend, Pronger being over 35), I don't think its unreasonable that he could've been resigned for 6M or so per year, and we can stick with 6.25M to be generous. I'd give him a 4 or 5 year deal (taking him to age 39 or 40) for about a 6M cap hit per year. Again, this is all assuming he was willing to resign with the Ducks.

The issue that precipitated this trade was the decision to return to the Ducks by Scott Niedermayer. Niedermayer will be 36 this fall, and he has spent the last few years trying to decide if he wants to retire or not, continuing to resign in one year increments. There has been tons of speculation that the main reason he has stuck around this long is to play in the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver. After that, its entirely likely he rides off into the sunset. Without any sort of multi-year committment from Niedermayer, it could be just one year until the Ducks, who've had great success behind a couple of Norris winning defensemen, find themselves without any Norris winners on their blueline at all.

Given the choice between continuing to reup on a year to year basis (and the inability to plan ahead going forward because of it) with Scott Niedermayer, or being able to retain Pronger until he's 40 or close to it, I don't see how the decision couldn't go in Pronger's favor. Sure, Niedermayer is a great defenseman, but if you're an opposing forward, is there anyone you'd want to face least other than Chris Pronger? If nothing else, you can call the two even in terms of defensive ability and what they bring to the table, and then the question is simply whether or not to keep Niedermayer on a year to year basis, or to sign Pronger for a longer term. One of these gives you the ability to plan ahead, knowing that 30 of a possible 120 minutes a night on defense are already going to be covered for the next several years, and one of them doesn't tell you anything beyond the next year.

To hear the Ducks tell it, the biggest issue here was money, namely that they didn't want to commit 12M to two of the best defensemen in the league, as they have the last few years. I would have an easier time buying this if Joffrey Lupul hadn't been a part of the return for Pronger. Lupul is now the third highest paid forward on the Ducks, with a 4.25M/yr cap hit, and he's never scored more than 56 points in an NHL season. If you take his 2007-08 Flyers season (56 GP, 20-26-46) and extrapolate that out over a full 82 game season, you at least get 67 points, which is better, but still not great, especially when he has yet to be able to replicate such a result. The Ducks could've spent an extra ~2M and instead locked up one of the best defensemen in the league, and told Niedermayer to take less money (like maybe Lupul's 4.25M) or let him walk, and I think they'd have been ahead than where they are now.

EDIT: It appears the Ducks are already attempting to trade Giguere, as he has put together a short list of teams he'd find acceptable in a trade. The fact that they could soon be relieved of a 6M/yr backup goalie makes the money angle on the Pronger trade even sillier, I think. (And for what its worth, I wouldn't trade Giguere yet anyways. I'd want to make sure Hiller wasn't a one hit wonder first, and give Giguere a chance to play and get his trade value back up to where it belongs.)

Crosspost: Detroit Red Wings 2009 draft preview

(This is originally posted at James O'Brien's Cycle Like The Sedins for his 2009 draft preview series)

What direction do you expect Detroit to go in this year's draft? What's your preference?

First of all, I expect the lucky draft pick will have a weird name, and probably be European. On top of that, he'll also have to be patient, because it usually takes a very long time for a youngster to get into the Wings' lineup. I've never checked the numbers, but I'd imagine the Wings probably end up with a lot of guys making debuts at about 2-3 years later than they would on most other teams. However, I think the Wings are on the brink of a major (at least for them) youth movement, with the no-longer increasing cap forcing them to let go of some older guys and replace them with (cheap!) quality depth from Grand Rapids that we've heard so much about for years.

One of the things that I thought was most shocking about the Cup Final this year (aside from the fact that the Wings lost) was how bad their defense looked. It was an ongoing problem throughout the regular season, and it seemed to right itself for a while in the playoffs, but it really came undone against the Penguins. I'll give Lidstrom a free pass, even though he was skating worse than me, because he had a busted testicle, and frankly, its the first time I've seen him NOT have a good series. That said, seeing Lidstrom so completely nullified out there was frankly pretty scary. I don't have much faith in Lilja/Lebda, and one good playoff run for Brad Stuart doesn't make me feel safe. Lidstrom's injury reminded everyone that he won't be around forever, and he won't always be the best defenseman in the NHL even while he's still around. I want a new defenseman who in about 2 years or so can step in to the roster spot left by Lidstrom's retirement, and replace Lebda/Lilja initially.

That said, I think the Wing's forward depth is going to get donkey punched this offseason. Basically, one of Hossa/Hudler will stay, and then a handful of forwards (like you, Samuelsson!) will get let go. On top of that, depending exactly where the cap finally sets at, a buyout or two might be necessary. I think in response to this, Ken Holland is going to grab a forward to help restock that part of the shelf. I won't argue with the master, but it won't make me feel as secure as replacing a couple of idiot defensemen would.

I don't think Detroit will be interested in a goaltender. Jimmy Howard, the "goalie of the future" for the last 5+ years, needs to either make the big club, or jump off a cliff. I've already given up hope on Jimmy Howard, but I'm very much interested in Daniel Larsson (gee, a Swede!). Frankly, I wouldn't be opposed to buying Ozzie out, and going with Howard/Larsson to fight it out for the spot between the pipes for the next 10 years.

Favorite Draft Day Memories?

Well, I'm not much for the NHL draft. I'm not much for prospects either. But as for draft steals? I won't go back too farI'd have to say getting the best defenseman in NHL history at #53 overall is a real good deal. Of course, getting a couple of the most complete players in the game right now at #171 (Datsyuk) and #210 (Zetterberg) is cool too. Part of that is certainly drafting the right players, but a lot of that also is the right developmental system. How many failures on other teams have flourished under the Detroit developmental systems?

Draft Day Busts?

It's hard to have busts when you're consistently picking in the lower parts of the 1st round, or trading those picks for "win now" pieces. But Jimmy Howard is one season away from getting on there in my book. We've been told he's the goalie of the future for a long time now, and yet the 64th overall pick in the 2003 Entry Draft has only 9 NHL appearances. At some point, especially with the carousel in the Detroit crease since Hasek's (first) retirement, shouldn't he have gotten a chance to sink or swim? Not many Red Wings prospects get significant hype on the way to the big club, but Howard has been one of the few, and that definitely sets him in my sights.

Soapbox time!

Could we please stop trying to tailor our sport to get a bunch of people who dislike hockey to like it? I mean, seriously. The game as it is right now is pretty good. Most of the game's problems are not necessarily problems with the game itself, but problems with the league, which are detracting from the product on the ice. Just because our game isn't getting constant coverage on ESPN like Terrell friggin Owens doesn't mean our game sucks. Just because some idiot columnists keep talking about how hockey isn't a real sport doesn't mean our game sucks. Just because our game is different doesn't mean our game sucks. And just because our game isn't as popular doesn't mean our game sucks.

Everyone is so worried about the casual sports fan. You wanna know a secret? The "casual sports fan" who cannot follow anything that Sportscenter doesn't shove down his throat is a dumbass, and we shouldn't give a damn about changing a game that we love in order to get him to tune in or to take it seriously. We're part of a secret club, and we all know a great secret, that the rest of the world is too stupid to pay attention to. I don't know if anything irritates me as much as people that think the game needs changed or the league needs to suck on the ESPN teat in order to somehow be important in the national sports scene.

Hockey is a grassroots thing, and the best thing the league can do to grow its revenues is to give those roots more time to grow and spread in a post lockout scene, and in the 90's expansion markets, where kids who were first introduced to the game are now getting old enough to have kids and introduce them to the game. We don't need to convince the casual fan. We just need to grow it ourselves. Support your local rink, or get one built in your city park. Donate your old equipment to charities. Play in a beer league, or even start one if you want. Make some babies and give 'em hockey sticks. Maybe its not flashy, but its true.

Wing Killers: Chris Pronger

Posting over at the Cycle Like Sedins' ANA/DET miniblog this year, one of the things I did was examine Chris Pronger's reputation as a clutch performer against the Red Wings. These players are often called Wing-killers, and going into that series against the Ducks, Earl Sleek had been telling everyone who would listen that post-lockout, the story of the playoffs was either that Chris Pronger eliminates the Red Wings, or the Red Wings win the Stanley Cup. (Gee, that worked out well, huh?) I remembered Pronger's contributions on the 2006 Oilers and 2007 Ducks in both Detroit eliminations, but I also remembered St. Louis consistently coming up short against the Wings for several years in the late 90's and early 00's. I was curious to see if his dominance of the Wings was only particular to those two post-lockout teams or if there were signs of that dominance on those Blues teams as well.

My basic conclusion last time was that since he arrived as one of the top defensemen in the NHL, Pronger has been an absolute beast against the Wings. In 2000, Chris Pronger won the Hart and Norris trophies in the same year. That's another way of saying "this guy is one of the best in the game". Going from that point on in his career against the Wings, he posted some great numbers: 15 GP, 2-13-15 (1.0ppg), +9, 34 PIM, and those are just the easy counting numbers. There is no way to count how many times he frustrated the Wings in trying to mount an attack in his end of the ice.

If you compare this to some of the numbers I've taken a look at for points per game production in the playoffs, that 1.0 ppg for Pronger puts him in the top 25 of forwards, and in the top 2 for defensemen. I think its safe to say that contribution on that level qualifies Chris Pronger as a real Wing Killer. But since I made that post, Pronger has completed another series against the Wings, so lets add that data in, and see if his performance this year was in line with his past performances.

First, let's count off each battle:

1995-96 - 2nd round (1) Detroit vs (5) St. Louis, Detroit wins in 7

1996-97 - 1st round (3) Detroit vs (6) St. Louis, Detroit wins in 6

1997-98 - 2nd round (3) Detroit vs (4) St. Louis, Detroit wins in 6

2001-02 - 2nd round (1) Detroit vs (4) St. Louis, Detroit wins in 5

2005-06 - 1st round (1) Detroit vs (8) Edmonton, Edmonton wins in 6

2006-07 - 3rd round (1) Detroit vs (2) Anaheim, Anaheim wins in 6

2008-09 - 2nd round (2) Detroit vs (8) Anaheim, Detroit wins in 7

(Career record: 2-5 in series versus Detroit, 18-23 in games he has played against Detroit in the playoffs)

Now, we'll break it down into the individual game performances:

1995-96 2nd round (1) Detroit vs (5) St. Louis, Detroit wins in 7

G1: 0G 1A -1 4 shot 0 PIM

G2: 0G 1A -3 2 shot 4 PIM

G3: 0G 1A even 0 shot 2 PIM

G4: 0G 0A even 1 shot 0 PIM

G5: 0G 0A +1 1 shot 0 PIM

G6: 0G 0A even 3 shot 0 PIM

G7: 0G 0A even 0 shot 0 PIM

TOTAL: 0G 3A -3 11 shots 6 PIM

1996-97 1st round (3) Detroit vs (6) St. Louis, Detroit wins in 6

Unfortunately, it seems that box scores from the 1997 playoffs are not available. However, because the Blues lost to the Wings in the first round, we can get Pronger's total numbers for the series from his playoff numbers.

TOTAL: 1G 1A even 19 shots 22 PIM

1997-98 2nd round (3) Detroit vs (4) St. Louis, Detroit wins in 6

G1: 0G 1A +1 1 shot 2 PIM

G2: 0G 1A -1 1 shot 4 PIM

G3: 0G 1A -1 2 shot 2 PIM

G4: 0G 0A +1 3 shots 2 PIM

G5: 0G 0A even 1 shot 6 PIM

G6: 0G 1A -2 4 shot 0 PIM

TOTAL: 0G 4A -2 12 shots 16 PIM

2001-02 2nd round (1) Detroit vs (4) St. Louis, Detroit wins in 5

G1: 0G 0A even 3 shots 16 PIM (misconduct)

G2: 0G 1A +1 4 shot 0 PIM

G3: 0G 3A +2 1 shot 0 PIM

G4: 0G 1A even 1 shot 2 PIM (Torn ACL for trying to kill a one-legged Yzerman)

G5: DID NOT PLAY (Torn ACL)

TOTAL: 0G 5A +3 9 shots 18 PIM (Plus a torn ACL)

2005-06 1st round (1) Detroit vs (8) Edmonton, Edmonton wins in 6

G1: 1G 0A -2 2 shot 0 PIM

G2: 1G 1A +4 6 shot 0 PIM

G3: 0G 1A +1 1 shot 0 PIM

G4: 0G 0A even 4 shot 0 PIM

G5: 0G 3A even 0 shot 0 PIM

G6: 0G 0A +1 0 shot 4 PIM

TOTAL: 2G 5A +4 13 shots 4 PIM

2006-07 3rd round (1) Detroit vs (2) Anaheim, Anaheim wins in 6

G1: 0G 0A even 5 shot 0 PIM

G2: 0G 1A +1 5 shot 4 PIM

G3: 0G 0A even 3 shot 4 PIM (Niedermayer blamed for another 15 PIM)

G4: DID NOT PLAY (Suspended)

G5: 0G 1A even 3 shot 4 PIM

G6: 0G 1A +1 2 shot 0 PIM

TOTAL: 0G 3A +2 18 shots 12 PIM (Plus a suspension and should've had another 15 PIM)

2008-09 2^nd round (2) Detroit vs (8) Anaheim, Detroit wins in 7

G1: 0G 2A -1 1 shot 0 PIM

G2: 1G 0A even 5 shot 0 PIM

G3: 0G 1A even 2 shot 4 PIM

G4: 0G 1A -1 2 shot 2 PIM

G5: 0G 0A -1 2 shot 0 PIM

G6: 0G 0A +1 2 shot 0 PIM

G7: 0G 1A even 2 shot 0 PIM

TOTAL: 1G 5A -2 16 shots 6 PIM

CAREER TOTAL: 41GP 4G-26A-30P +2 98SOG 84PIM

Just a quick glance at these series illustrates that Pronger did much better when he was not in St. Louis, and that especially his early years on the Blues, before he established himself as a top defenseman in the NHL, dragged his career averages down a lot. With that in mind, I did a split for Pronger based on his STL teams versus his non-STL teams. Updated to include 2008-09, this split looks like so:

Pronger (STL): 23 GP / 1G 13A 14P (0.61ppg) / -2 / 62 PIM (2.70 PIM/game)

Pronger (EDM/ANA): 18 GP / 3G 13A 16P (0.89ppg) / +4 / 22 PIM (1.22 PIM/game)

This clearly shows us a pretty big difference in performance between what Pronger did against the Wings in St. Louis versus what he did in Anaheim and Edmonton, where his only series wins against Detroit occurred. However, the majority of Pronger’s STL/DET matchups happened in three consecutive years, from 1996-98, when he was definitely a rising star, but had not completely taken the reins from Al MacInnis as top dog on the St. Louis blue line. Also, St. Louis’ peak years as a team came from a period of time from about 1999-2002, indicating that the team around Pronger got better after those three straight losses to the Wings. This peak for the team coincided with Pronger’s arrival as one of the top defensemen in the league. A split of pre-Norris Pronger vs post-Norris Pronger might give us a better idea of what sort of performances Pronger has offered since fully realizing his potential.

Pronger (1996-98): 19 GP / 1G 8A 9P (0.47ppg) / -5 / 44 PIM (2.32 PIM/game)

Pronger (2002-09): 22 GP / 3G 18A 21P (0.95ppg) / +7 / 40 PIM (1.82 PIM/game)

That’s a pretty remarkable difference right there. Twice as many ppg, putting Pronger on a pace that would keep him among the top forwards in the league, and at the top of the heap for defensemen. Its hard to put together some of his non-counting numbers here, because those numbers have only recently started to be tracked, but from my own observations, I think its pretty safe to say that the non-counting end of his game (specifically keeping the Wings out of his net, and preferably putting them on the ground) improved just as much through these splits. One of the best examples of this is the fact that in the 2007 series win by Anaheim, Pronger was only on the ice for one goal against in 5 games, that being a short handed goal. That, despite being on the ice for 156:42 (22:34 of which was shorthanded) in the 5 games of that series he appeared in. That’s not just impressive, its downright Herculean.

The only weakness that has been evident in Pronger’s play is his propensity for taking penalties, but even much of that has diminished with time and experience. In his days in STL, Pronger was averaging well over a single minor penalty a game. Considering that he is such a key penalty killer for his teams, his being in the box becomeseven worse, because the team goes shorthanded, and does so without one of the best penalty killers in the league. In his last three series against the Wings, from 2006-09, he’s averaging a little over half a minor penalty per game. In this same time period, he is also playing very close to half the game on the ice, so the fact that his PIMs have come down as his ice time goes up makes him a more and more reliable workhorse for his teams.

I always knew Pronger was a good player against the Wings, but seeing the magnitude of his contributions and seeing them actually quantified, frankly, has given me a whole new level of respect for the guy. I still hate his guts, but I’ve got to give him props for being able to play on such a level against one of the perennially great teams in Detroit.

Wing Killers is a feature I would like to continue, by taking a look at some other key players who have developed a reputation for being able to put the boots to the Wings. Adam Deadmarsh is one who comes to mind. If you have any other requests or suggestions, be sure to let me know.