Crosspost: Detroit Red Wings 2009 free agency outlook

(This is originally posted over at James O'Brien's Cycle Like The Sedins for his 2009 free agency preview series)

1. Which player, for the love of God, do you NOT want to see in your team's sweater in the 09-10 season?

Frankly, with the Wings' cap situation, they'd have a hard time signing someone for the federal minimum wage, to say nothing of the NHL minimum wage. For that reason, I think I'm gonna have to stick it to guys on the Wings that I don't want to return. First on the list of Mike Samuelsson. Why? People have tried telling me before that he's not that bad, and maybe I'm spoiled and expect everyone to be a franchise player, but I swear, he does a lot of stupid stuff. Nothing I can ever think of off the top of my head (unlike, say, Andreas Lilja costing us a Cup), but I just don't think he's that good, and I'd rather see that spot filled by a developing youngster for a bit cheaper. I just don't like the guy.

Now for my more shocking answer: Marian Hossa. If Ken Holland were to resign Hossa to even a 4M/yr deal (which would be ludicrous on Hossa's part), you'd still have a team payroll of 55.2M, lose my boy Hudler, still need another forward or two, and perhaps a backup goalie (or even a starting goalie!), all with 1.8M to spare. For the sake of the Red Wing's salary structure going forward, it would probably be best for Hossa to move on. Unless Holland can pull off some sort of nice deal to save us some salary (please, someone, take Lebda and Lilja and Stuart off our hands!), Hossa ought to be the odd man out. Sorry bro, you had your chance, and you blew it. Massively. GLHF winning a Cup next year.

(An interesting alternative way for the Wings to get cap space: Lilja missed the playoffs with a concussion which he's still not recovered from, and I think he's had concussion issues before. Slap the LTIR tag on Lilja and he doesn't count against the cap. That's an extra 1.25M of savings!)

Also, I should point out, Ken Holland already announced that the worst player on the Wings would not be back next year. I love what you've done through your career, Cheli, but it really is the end of the line. Go be a coach somewhere, but please, get off the ice.

2. Conversely, pick a potential move by another team that would just crush your soul/favorite team's chances.

A move that would put a stake through my heart? That's a tough one, as I think there are only a couple of teams that could really knock the Wings off their perch. Anaheim getting Hossa would be a tough one, as they're one of the few that can consistently beat the Wings as it is. Calgary could also be a threat if Kipper ever gets his head on straight, so I guess I hope that Calgary doesn't hire a team psychologist or exorcist or whatever the hell he needs. I guess that statement also applies to the Sharks as an entire team. I don't get concerned about the East because we never see them, and frankly, I didn't think any of them could beat the Wings in a 7 game series until a couple weeks ago. So I guess if Giguere/Pronger went to Pittsburgh, that would also suck.

Pronger or Giguere going within the Central Division, San Jose, Calgary, or Pittsburgh would really suck all around. Pretty much the god damn Ducks are the source of any sort of thorns in my side. Except I can't really hate them because they've got some great bloggers and they're a really damn competitive team. Like, Edmonton has good bloggers, but the team and management is a joke, so I just laugh at them and don't take them seriously. Anaheim is actually really damn good, and for some reason they want to get rid of a really great defenseman, and keep pulling phenomenally talented goalies out of their ass. It pisses me off.

Just ship Pronger and Giguere in a package deal to Atlanta so I don't have to put up with them anymore. And I'm glad Allaire left you guys. So there.

POSTSCRIPT: Ok, so I wrote this for James right before the draft, at which point Pronger was traded to Philadelphia. Really, the worst things that could happen to the Wings were things the Ducks could make happen. I don't think Pronger going to Philadelphia is that big of a deal for the Wings, because in the end, only one Eastern Conference team will matter, and I hardly think the Flyers will make the Cup Finals. I mean, come on, they're the FLYERS. With RAY FRICKIN' EMERY. This team could just as easily finish with the #1 draft pick on the heels of an absolutely magical explosion of conflicting and contentious (and mean) personalities. Pronger will help immensely to control guys like Crosby and Ovechkin, but I really don't think its enough to make the Flyers a threat to the Wings.

So now as long as Giguere doesn't go anywhere important (let's see a reunion with Allaire and Burke in Toronto!), and Hossa doesn't sign with the Ducks, it'll have been a somewhat acceptable offseason. I'm far more interested in how the Wings juggle the cap space to complete a full roster for next year, and I'm really interested in who is going to be our backup goalie. Hopefully one of our three serious goalie prospects takes the job, and then takes the starting job.

(I think its important to note here that if the Ducks didn't get in the Wings' way so damn much, I'd probably be a big fan. They play a great mean physical game, they have a style and an attitude that really speaks "hockey" to me, and they have some great coverage between the guys at Anaheim Calling and Earl Sleek. But unfortunately they keep getting in the damn way. Seriously, please go away. We're trying to win some Cups here.)

Chris Pronger is a Flyer, but didn't need to be

The big news lately around the NHL (aside from the buildup for July 1) is the Chris Pronger trade from Anaheim to Philadelphia. The deal was Chris Pronger & Ryan Dingle from Anaheim to Philadelphia for Joffrey Lupul, Luca Sbisa, 2 first round draft picks, and a conditional 3rd round pick in 2010 or 2011. Its a pretty hefty price for Pronger, and I don't think anyone can say that the Ducks didn't get enough in exchange. It was a good return for the trade. On the Flyers end of it, if Pronger walks at the end of this season, then I would say they overpaid, but not terribly. If Pronger resigns with the team, then it was a good deal.

Despite the big price tag, Chris Pronger is undoubtedly one of the top defensemen in the league. I can't think of anyone I would hate to see on an opposing blueline more than Pronger, especially come playoff time. In the Eastern Conference, where defense is secondary to offense, and superstars like Crosby, Malkin, and Ovechkin are allowed to drive to the net relentlessly, Pronger will be even more valuable. He makes sure that getting to his net isn't easy, that you have to pay the toll in sweat (and maybe some blood) to get there. I can think of a couple stars who could be in for a rude awakening when they play the Flyers next.

However, all that said, if Pronger was willing to resign with the Ducks and work out an extension before next summer, then I don't like this deal so much from the Ducks' perspective. Chris Pronger will be 35 this fall, meaning (as I understand it at least) that any new contract he signs will be subject to the guarantees that come with signing a player over 35. This would help keep his price down a little, as no one wants to be stuck with an immovable contract for an injured defenseman (hey, the Flyers would know about that!). Also, given that he would enter free agency in either the second year of an unmoving salary cap, or even a decreasing one, there would be less available money to be offered to him, and bidding wars would be somewhat tempered.

Chris Pronger's current deal has him counting for 6.250M/yr cap hits. He peaked with some absolutely stellar playoff runs in 2006 (Oilers) and 2007 (Ducks). That already gives him the 9th highest 09/10 cap hit amongst defensemen (obviously pending the events of this year's free agent period). Combined with the above issues (less to spend, Pronger being over 35), I don't think its unreasonable that he could've been resigned for 6M or so per year, and we can stick with 6.25M to be generous. I'd give him a 4 or 5 year deal (taking him to age 39 or 40) for about a 6M cap hit per year. Again, this is all assuming he was willing to resign with the Ducks.

The issue that precipitated this trade was the decision to return to the Ducks by Scott Niedermayer. Niedermayer will be 36 this fall, and he has spent the last few years trying to decide if he wants to retire or not, continuing to resign in one year increments. There has been tons of speculation that the main reason he has stuck around this long is to play in the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver. After that, its entirely likely he rides off into the sunset. Without any sort of multi-year committment from Niedermayer, it could be just one year until the Ducks, who've had great success behind a couple of Norris winning defensemen, find themselves without any Norris winners on their blueline at all.

Given the choice between continuing to reup on a year to year basis (and the inability to plan ahead going forward because of it) with Scott Niedermayer, or being able to retain Pronger until he's 40 or close to it, I don't see how the decision couldn't go in Pronger's favor. Sure, Niedermayer is a great defenseman, but if you're an opposing forward, is there anyone you'd want to face least other than Chris Pronger? If nothing else, you can call the two even in terms of defensive ability and what they bring to the table, and then the question is simply whether or not to keep Niedermayer on a year to year basis, or to sign Pronger for a longer term. One of these gives you the ability to plan ahead, knowing that 30 of a possible 120 minutes a night on defense are already going to be covered for the next several years, and one of them doesn't tell you anything beyond the next year.

To hear the Ducks tell it, the biggest issue here was money, namely that they didn't want to commit 12M to two of the best defensemen in the league, as they have the last few years. I would have an easier time buying this if Joffrey Lupul hadn't been a part of the return for Pronger. Lupul is now the third highest paid forward on the Ducks, with a 4.25M/yr cap hit, and he's never scored more than 56 points in an NHL season. If you take his 2007-08 Flyers season (56 GP, 20-26-46) and extrapolate that out over a full 82 game season, you at least get 67 points, which is better, but still not great, especially when he has yet to be able to replicate such a result. The Ducks could've spent an extra ~2M and instead locked up one of the best defensemen in the league, and told Niedermayer to take less money (like maybe Lupul's 4.25M) or let him walk, and I think they'd have been ahead than where they are now.

EDIT: It appears the Ducks are already attempting to trade Giguere, as he has put together a short list of teams he'd find acceptable in a trade. The fact that they could soon be relieved of a 6M/yr backup goalie makes the money angle on the Pronger trade even sillier, I think. (And for what its worth, I wouldn't trade Giguere yet anyways. I'd want to make sure Hiller wasn't a one hit wonder first, and give Giguere a chance to play and get his trade value back up to where it belongs.)